Tuesday 06 January 2009
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Environmental report predicts global 'energy crunch'

Oil supply could peak as early as 2013, ushering in an age of global energy poverty
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According to a new report, a severe ecological recession more catastrophic than the credit crisis is rapidly approaching.

The Oil Crunch: Securing the UK's energy future predicts that production of easily available oil will peak by 2013 with the resulting spike in fuel prices having an overwhelming effect on the world’s economy both directly and indirectly.

The report, published by industry taskforce Peak Oil, urges the government to re-prioritise and treat the fuel crisis as a more immediate threat to national security than both climate change and terrorism.

Will Whitehorn, chairman of the Peak Oil and Virgin Group representative said: “The first report of the taskforce is a balanced look at the energy risks and opportunities we face but it is also a wake-up call to the urgent actions required in the UK and other major global economies to overcome the consequences of the end of the era of cheap oil.”

Mr Whitehorn suggests that this crisis presents an opportunity for Britain to set a worldwide example by investing in renewable energy sources. However, Peak Oil argues that immediate action is crucial as after oil production has peaked, the necessary resources needed to instigate these developments will be unavailable.

The Peak Oil group is composed of eight major UK companies, including transport giants Stagecoach and FirstGroup, Scottish and Southern Energy, and engineering firm Arup. Its findings are based upon its own research alongside analyses of oil-supply risk by Peak Oil Consulting and Shell, the latter believing that a production plateau is more probable. However, the study concludes that we are most likely facing a peak and fall scenario, with outright collapse in production also a risk.

It is purported that the oil industry has made significant discoveries of oilfields in Brazil, however the report claims that these are not substantial enough to support rising demands from developing countries, such as China and India, reaching energy-intensive phases of urbanisation. Furthermore, concerns have been raised that existing national reserves have been grossly exaggerated for political purposes.

Yet the emergence of these findings during the credit crunch is not entirely bad news, as the current economic climate could lend the government valuable time, and Peak Oil suggests that the advantage should be taken of higher unemployment and availability of capital assets to invest in a renewable infrastructure.

The department of energy and climate change formed during Gordon Brown’s cabinet reshuffle have recently committed the United Kingdom to cut our greenhouse emissions 80 per cent over the next 42 years whilst gradually advancing toward green energy solutions. Its appointed leader, Ed Miliband has yet to release any information on how the department intends to address the impending environmental crisis.

Several days before The Oil Crunch was published, Gordon Brown told the BBC Politics Show: “We have a global energy problem, but we don't have a means of co-coordinating people's actions so that we reduce our dependence on oil. And these are the problems that as a world community, you've got to deal with them.

“That's why I've been proposing international action to deal with both the energy problem and the problems of the financial sector.”

The Peak Oil group have elected to continue studying the issue and searching for further solutions.

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